Q4 outlook: growth continues as expansion conditions tighten
Positive growth, higher financing costs and slower housing delivery create a mixed backdrop for expansion.
What changed
BEA reported annualized real GDP growth of 2.5% in Q1 and 2.2% in Q2 2026. In September, the Federal Reserve increased its policy range to 3.75%–4.00%. August housing completions fell 27.1% from a year earlier, according to Census estimates.
Why it matters
The first-half growth figures do not support a blanket halt to expansion. Higher capital costs and slower housing delivery nevertheless make location timing more consequential. SiteThesis sees a more selective Q4 environment: existing customer demand and future growth expectations may point in different directions.
Sources
- BEA GDP release, September 30, 2026
- Federal Reserve statement, September 16, 2026
- Census housing release, September 17, 2026
Commentary reflects the release dates shown above. National figures describe the wider market; they do not establish the prospects of an individual location.