Define the decision
We capture the concept, candidate address or target market, investment range, operating format and required return.
SiteThesis methodology
Evidence first. Assumptions visible. Decisions explicit.
SiteThesis converts public, licensed and modeled location data into a site-level investment thesis. The method changes with urbanity because customers do not move through Manhattan, central Dallas and a suburban retail corridor the same way.
Transparent assumptions Source hierarchy Scenario-tested returns
How the analysis runs
Seven steps from address to capital decision.
Classify the place
Block-group density, land use, street pattern, transit and access determine whether the location is dense urban, urban or suburban.
Build the trade area
Dense urban markets use walk, transit and short drive sheds. Urban markets combine walk and drive behavior. Suburban footprints use 3-, 5- and 7-minute drive-time rings.
Measure demand
Population, households, income, employment, daytime population, housing cost, growth and demand generators establish the addressable market.
Test competitive reality
Direct competitors, analogs, anchors, development pipeline and barriers reveal saturation, whitespace and likely capture.
Underwrite the unit
Sales, occupancy burden, unit-level EBITDA, break-even, payback and IRR run through downside, base and upside cases.
Issue the decision
The report states enter conditions, avoid conditions, execution constraints, key risks and the final investment position.
Trade-area logic
The geography follows customer behavior.
One fixed radius would overstate demand in dense markets and understate convenience-led capture in suburban corridors.
Dense urban
5, 10 and 15-minute walkTransit exits, pedestrian routes, block-level density, vertical population, daytime workers and physical barriers drive the primary geography.
Urban
5, 10 and 15-minute walk plus short driveWalking access, street connectivity, parking, transit and localized drive behavior define a blended demand shed.
Suburban
3, 5 and 7-minute driveRoad network, turn access, traffic flow, shopping patterns, anchors and competing retail nodes establish the footprint.
Evidence hierarchy
Measured data leads. Modeled data stays labeled.
SiteThesis prioritizes official and directly observed evidence. When measured foot traffic, sales or lease terms are unavailable, the report labels estimates and shows the assumptions that drive them.
Official and verified
U.S. Census Bureau and ACS, BLS, local planning records, assessor and zoning records, verified development filings and client-supplied operating data.
Observed and licensed
Measured mobility, traffic counts, transit ridership, commercial listings, POI directories and licensed market datasets when available.
Modeled and inferred
Sales capture, customer visits, analog productivity and forward demand. The report provides ranges, sensitivity and confidence limits instead of false precision.
Investment underwriting
Every attractive market must still support the unit.
Sales range
Addressable demand × attainable capture, calibrated to concept capacity, analog performance and competition.
Unit-level EBITDA
Sales less cost of goods, labor, occupancy and controllable operating expenses.
Risk-adjusted return
Base, upside and downside cash flows produce payback and IRR ranges under explicit entry conditions.
Decision rule: SiteThesis does not recommend a location solely because its market score is high. The final position must clear the concept’s sales, occupancy, payback and risk thresholds.
Important limitations
Demographic forecasts, mobility estimates and competitive listings can change. SiteThesis identifies the source date and confidence level, but it does not replace lease review, engineering, zoning, legal, environmental or operator diligence. Forward development enters the thesis only when the project, scale, stage, expected delivery and source can be verified.
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