Sample $995 location decision report
Candidate A · North Dallas
Illustrative neighborhood café underwriting · 12-minute urban trade area
FINAL POSITIONADVANCESubject to occupancy and access conditions
Executive decision
Advance, but cap occupancy at 9% of midpoint sales.
The location combines above-average household income, strong daytime demand and favorable access to a growing residential base. The base case supports a 28% levered IRR and 3.2-year payback. The thesis weakens quickly above $14,250 in monthly all-in occupancy or below $1.45 million in stabilized sales.
ENTER IF
All-in occupancy remains at or below $171,000 annually; verified ingress supports both traffic directions; no direct competitor signs within the primary node before lease execution.
AVOID IF
Required investment exceeds $690,000; opening slips beyond the modeled development delivery window; base sales fall below $1.45 million.
Market reality
Affluent residential growth meets a durable daytime base.
Resident population126,400+1.8% annual growth
Daytime population154,7001.22× resident base
Median household income$118,60031% above metro
Housing cost burden29%Moderate demand constraint
Demand does not rely on residential growth alone. A daytime population 22% larger than the resident base expands weekday occasions, while six identified multifamily projects add 1,840 units through the next 36 months. Housing costs absorb 29% of household income, which limits aggressive premium pricing despite strong nominal income.
What this means
Underwrite repeat weekday demand, not destination traffic. Price for an affluent but cost-aware customer and open before the largest residential deliveries stabilize.
Access and trade area
The site reaches demand, but afternoon ingress needs verification.
Candidate APrimary node
5 min38% of demand
8 min34% of demand
12 min28% of demand
The urban 5-, 8- and 12-minute drive sheds capture the strongest residential and employment nodes without reaching across the freeway barrier. Morning access performs well. Afternoon left-turn friction creates the main physical risk and requires a driveway and signal-cycle check before lease execution.
Competitive landscape
Independent cafés own experience; chains own convenience.
Win on convenience, digital ordering and habitual frequency.
Wins on brand affinity, atmosphere and destination visits.
Win on neighborhood identity but show inconsistent access and throughput.
The whitespace sits between chain-level convenience and local experience. A concept without fast pickup, visible frontage and a differentiated environment would enter a crowded market with no defendable reason to switch.
Unit economics
The unit makes money through throughput and disciplined rent.
11.2% EBITDA · 5.1-year payback
20.4% EBITDA · 3.2-year payback
23.4% EBITDA · 2.8-year payback
Initial investment$625,000
Annual occupancy$154,000
Break-even sales$1.08M
Occupancy ratio at midpoint9.0%
The base case produces $343,000 in unit-level EBITDA before corporate overhead and financing. Labor and occupancy drive most downside sensitivity. A 10% sales miss combined with 7% labor inflation reduces EBITDA by approximately 640 basis points.
Returns and risk
Return potential clears the hurdle, with three controllable risks.
Opening delay
A six-month delay lowers modeled IRR by 4–6 percentage points.
Occupancy creep
Rent above 10% of sales pushes base-case payback beyond four years.
Competitive entry
A high-throughput drive-thru entrant could reduce capture by 8%–12%.
Modeled levered IRR ranges from 14% in the downside case to 33% in the upside case. The 24%–33% investable range assumes the lease cap holds, opening occurs within 12 months and stabilized sales reach at least $1.52 million.
What this means
Proceed to lease diligence with a defined walk-away point.
OPTIMAL STRATEGY
Negotiate a 10-year lease with tenant improvement support, protect pickup access, and phase staffing to proven morning and lunch demand.
NEXT 30 DAYS
Validate traffic access, obtain final landlord economics, confirm development timing and complete a competitive opening check.
FINAL INVESTMENT POSITION
ADVANCE CONDITIONALLY. Do not sign if all-in occupancy exceeds $171,000 or required investment exceeds $690,000.
Included in the $995 report
A complete decision package, not a scorecard.
Executive recommendationLocation viability scoreUrbanity-adjusted trade areasMarket and demographic profileDaytime demand and generatorsCompetitor and analog reviewDevelopment pipelineSales and EBITDA scenariosBreak-even and occupancy testPayback and IRR rangeRisk and sensitivity analysisEnter, avoid and final position
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